Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
